It will probably balkanize when Trump runs for a third term. This is unconstitutional, but so is having a sitting president impeached for Insurrection (it is like Treason, but you do it for yourself instead of others).

My guess? Groups of states will drop out during or shortly after the next presidential election. There will be some minor conflicts, and then Trump will rule over the remaining "red" states until he dies, then that will also fall apart.

IIRC the tyrannical constitution of the Soviet Union had a clause allowing peripheral states to become independent.

California seems as likely as anything; it’s easy to imagine that Washington and Oregon (or half of Oregon—the eastern part of the state is much more right-wing). would go with them. But the federal government would not give up the naval and commercial ports on the west coast. There’d be another civil war.

California alone has a GDP comparable to that of the whole France, so I'd bet on West Coast.

People like to think that it is Texas, but I doubt that will be the case. While Texas is not one of the red states that gets more federal money than they pay, it is a state highly dependent on the defense industry and hosting many corporate HQs that will likely leave upon secession.

I guess some Irish bookmakers, without too much ado, are accepting bets on which state will be the first one to secede.

The idea of the United States existing as its current set of 50 states forever is ludicrous. I'm wondering how it will balkanize..