THREAD: This investigation took up most of my 2025 to produce, and it was published in this weekend's edition of @thecontinent newspaper.
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You may recall the other day, I put up this brief thread, highlighting how rising anti-French sentiments across western Africa in recent years...let to the withdrawals of French troops from 6 African states, and huge strategic and geopolitical losses of influence.
Facing rejection in the West Africa, France is working overtime to consolidate its presence in East Africa.
Including in the country that hosts the last French army base in Africa: you guessed it, Djibouti.
Zecharias Zelalem (@ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social)
Next year, Kenya will host the annual France-Africa summit, which strengthens the bonds between Africa and France. The arrangements were agreed to on the UN sidelines by Presidents Ruto and Macron. In reality, it highlights France's loss of influence. Forced out of much of Western Africa where hostility towards the former colonial power is heightened, France is now racing to make strategic and geopolitical gains in East African countries like Kenya. https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2025-09-25-kenya-and-france-to-co-host-africa-forward-summit-in-nairobi
Distributed AI Research Community (dair-community.social)
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Djibouti's former colonizer France has had a permanent military presence in Djibouti since the country's 1977 independence...which Djibouti kept as a tool to fend off possible territorial threats during the cold war from Ethiopia and Somalia.
In July 2024, Presidents Macron and Guelleh signed a renewal of the
military pact that would keep the 1,500 French soldiers in the country, with Djibouti pocketing a cool 85M euros annually.
France and Djibouti renew defense partnership
France and Djibouti renew defense partnership
(www.arabnews.com)
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Unlike Djibouti, France is not a country run by one man rule. As such, despite the signing...the renewal of the joint military pact still needed to be ratified by France's parliament.
Still, confident of eventually getting his way...Emmanuel Macron spent last Christmas with French troops in Djibouti, and spoke of plans to expand the French presence in Djibouti.
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In May 2025, Macron tried to fast track French parliament ratification of the military pact renewal.
But he was blocked.
A number of fringe French MPs, including anti-colonial leftists & communists demanded there be additional review/parliamentary discussion.
French media "Africa Intelligence" reports this was the result of robust lobbying by Djiboutian Afar activists.
A major sticking point according to the report? Allegations of a Djibouti drone civilian massacre
Djibouti • Communist Group puts brakes on military cooperation treaty in French Senate - 20/05/2025 - Africa Intelligence
The text tabled by France's government was due to be studied under the fast-track procedure, but some elected members of the upper house feel that it merits further discussion. - 5/20/2025
Africa Intelligence (www.africaintelligence.com)
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The Djiboutian and Afar communities in the diaspora have a strong advocacy culture. Most of them had heard the truth about the drone strike, from family members at home. In France and Belgium, they held rallies like this...outside the Turkish embassy demanding an end to drone sales to Djibouti. They denounced the French state's support for President Guelleh, and ensure their message reached MPs. Impressive considering their small numbers (Djibouti's population is barely 2 million)
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The failed effort to fast track the military pact's renewal...certainly worried both countries.
Djibouti was likely afraid that if the extent of its abuses became widely known, opposition in French parliament could grow and threaten a hugely lucrative arrangement.
Macron was probably worried that if the news of Djiboutian atrocities created enough opposition to the deal...France faced the possibility of withdrawing its troops, which would geopolitically weaken an already weak France in Africa.
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Diplomatic ties are another reason Ethiopia couldn't care less about the victims in Siyaru.
As part of his efforts to gain influence in East Africa, Macron has agreed to millions in investments in Ethiopia, and done much to rehabilitate the image of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, after years of accusations of war crimes and genocide.
All in all...Paris, Addis Ababa and Djibouti all wanted Siyaru to go away.
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Now HERE is where things get particularly dicey for this thread...and our investigation:
France may have been attempting to renew its agreement with Djibouti. But that doesn't mean it didn't already have one. Since 1991, France has had an agreement giving it responsibility for the safety and surveillance of Djiboutian airspace and waters, as is indicated on the website of France's Assemble Nationale.
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This is why France's role deserves to come under scrutiny.
French military presence in Djibouti overseeing airspace surveillance suggests that it's highly unlikely that France had absolutely no knowledge of a deadly Bayraktar TB2 drone crossing international frontiers, possibly multiple times over the course of hours...on its watch on 30/1/25
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Questions that need to be asked:
Did French forces play a role, either monitoring or assisting in some capacity, the Djiboutian air force as it piloted Turkish Bayrakar TB2 drones into what we now know is Ethiopian territory to carry out a civilian massacre?
Is there possible complicity & to what extent if so?
Were French authorities/forces in Djibouti notified in advance about Djibouti's planned mission on 30/1/25 and if so, what were they told about it?
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I don't have the answers to these questions and Djiboutian officials refused to provide me with them when I reached out.
A French Foreign Ministry official told me on Friday that he would try his "best to respond as quickly as possible" to my queries.
We'll just have to wait and see.
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Whatever the case...it is crystal clear to anyone observing, why all three countries were perfectly content with the way international media casually brushed the story aside, depicting the slaughter of women and children on Ethiopian soil as a strike targeting FRUD militants in Djibouti.
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For what it's worth, I also reached out to the FRUD rebels. Their chief, Mohamed Kadamy explained to me that his forces "were nowhere near the site when [the strike] happened." He added that FRUD rebels, largely recruited from the Afar population, do operate across the Ethiopian-Djiboutian border areas...but that none of the 3 reported Djiboutian strikes ever hit his forces.
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Now I promise you...I am not the conspiracy theory type.
But you have to admit, it looks pretty funny and peculiar in hindsight, how major French state backed media were very prompt to produce headlines placing the strike zone a full 8km away from where it actually happened, and depict the dead as FRUD rebels.
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But people from across the region are unanimous in their disappointment over the silence of this woman, Aisha Mohammed Mussa. Not only does she hail from the Afar ethnicity, she's actually the Ethiopian federal government's Minister of Defense.
Double whammy.
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I reached out to the CEOs of both Turkish state companies whose weapons caused the Siyaru massacre... Haluk Bayraktar of Baykar, and the CEO of Roketsan, Murat Ikinci...about whether they discouraged clients from indiscriminately firing upon civilians, and whether they had any comment about the involvement of their company's weapons in the Siyaru massacre. Silence.
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On June 23 2025, despite the best efforts of Djiboutian activists, the renewal of the French-Djiboutian military pact was ratified. During pre-vote debate, Jean-Paul Lecoq, a communist MP, accused "corrupt" Djiboutian officials of carrying out airstrikes against its people & those of neighbouring Ethiopia.
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But the vote passed with a comfortable majority. The Ethiopian government's silence, the biased media coverage by prominent international and especially French news agencies, and frankly...Lecoq being a communist...meant that his words, however truthful they were, would always be viewed as the ramblings of a radical.
Projet de loi autorisant la ratification du Traité de coopération en matière de défense entre la République française et la République de Djibouti
Projet de loi autorisant la ratification du Traité de coopération en matière de défense entre la République française et la République de Djibouti
Assemblée nationale (www.assemblee-nationale.fr)
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Mariam Mohammed Abdullah was severely injured in the strike. Due to no fault of their own, the massacre of her people, innocent Afar pastoralists, led to the alignment of the geopolitical interests of regional & international powers & a joint effort to depict this mother of eight as a terrorist.
She's a survivor and a brave woman.
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That's it. For a greater understanding of the devastating impact of cheaply manufactured drones in Africa, distributed by the likes of Turkiye...I produced this policy brief for the European Council on Foreign Relations earlier this year, which highlights the increasingly alarming trend that is ravaging communities like Mariam's across the continent.
Deadly skies: Drone warfare in Ethiopia and the future of conflict in Africa – European Council on Foreign Relations
Drone warfare is increasing in Ethiopia and across Africa. These foreign-supplied weapons risk prolonging wars and can help drive governments further away from
ECFR (ecfr.eu)
