Coincidentally, this great article just came out (that I got interviewed for) that really nicely summarizes the issues in orbit: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/with-space-junk-on-the-rise-is-a-catastrophic-event-inevitable-180986907/

SpaceX spends a lot of time saying how safe they are with their threshhold for collision avoidance maneuvers, which is great. But they HAVE to be! With those densities, high collision probability conjunctions happen many times per day. It is impressive that they have been operating perfectly, but how long do they think they can keep this up with zero mistakes?

And what if all the Starlinks are not all fully burning up as they claim? That's a lot of stuff hitting the ground...

Kessler Syndrome update:
They report 144,000 collision avoidance maneuvers across the whole constellation in Dec-May. That's about one maneuver every 2 minutes.

Every 2 minutes there's a chance for a mistake that would lead to a very bad day in orbit. And as this paper shows (with Dr. Kessler himself as a co-author!), a very bad day at that altitude would lead to a runaway collisional cascade. No more satellites at that altitude! https://conference.sdo.esoc.esa.int/proceedings/sdc9/paper/305/SDC9-paper305.pdf

New SpaceX report on Starlink conjunctions and deorbits (a.k.a. dumping tons of metal/plastic/solar panels/computers into the upper atmosphere) https://www.scribd.com/document/883045105/SpaceX-Gen1-Gen2-Semi-Annual-Report-7-1-25

Scariest part:
472 Starlinks were burned up in the atmosphere in Dec-May. Assuming each satellite is 800kg, and 50% aluminum by mass, that's 1 ton of aluminum PER DAY.

The natural infall rate of aluminum from meteoroids is 0.3 tons per day. Starlink has been ~3x that, for the last 6 months.

There's a new batch of named asteroids that includes a bunch of Canadian First Nations and Canadian astronomers, thanks to Dave Balam (who finds, measures, and names lots of asteroids) https://www.wgsbn-iau.org/files/Bulletins/V005/WGSBNBull_V005_015.pdf

I'm very excited that Wilfred Buck now has an asteroid! I tried not to fan-girl too badly as I emailed back and forth with him to find out that he prefers his Cree name, and then I ran into character limits.

So... it's 611326 Wilfredbuck, not Pawami Nikititicikiw. I tried.

I might be misunderstanding this, but that's my quick takeaway. I'm guessing it's directly because of US budget cuts, since Space Track is US-funded.

Closer and closer to Kessler Syndrome!

Huh, so apparently https://www.space-track.org/auth/login/ which is the easiest place to get satellite orbits (and one of the only public databases) is not going to carry Starlink satellites anymore and you have to get them directly from Starlink. There's a hilariously terse plain text instruction file on how https://www.starlink.com/public-files/ephemerides/README.md

We were always totally at the mercy of private companies reporting their own orbits, but not even having them in the main public database is a little scary.

The parade was equal parts delightfully small-town cheesy and rather uncomfortable (oh my rural Saskatchewan is white white white). The hours(!) of biking slowly on dirt roads and appreciating the land I live on was definitely the highlight of Canada Day.

Here's an organization (that I share my land through) that is taking a better direction toward fulfilling the treaties in Canada: https://treatylandsharingnetwork.ca/

It took FOREVER AND A HALF. My kids bike slower than I knew was possible, plus I got my first flat tire on my new-ish bike halfway there, and had to call in a rescue mission from my partner (brought new tube and we kept on).

So even though it was slow and took WAY longer than I expected (and I seem to have applied sunscreen to myself badly and have random sunburned patches), it was a completely pleasant ride and I think my kids enjoyed it as much as I did, so yay for more bike rides with kids!

Happy Canada Day! I'm going to try to get my kids to bike with me 10km on gravel roads+grassy highway shoulder 4x4 trail to the nearest town. There is a pancake breakfast and a ridiculous cheesy Canada Day parade waiting at the end if we manage it in less than 2 hours... this will be challenging! Wish us luck!