It will probably balkanize when Trump runs for a third term. This is unconstitutional, but so is having a sitting president impeached for Insurrection (it is like Treason, but you do it for yourself instead of others).
My guess? Groups of states will drop out during or shortly after the next presidential election. There will be some minor conflicts, and then Trump will rule over the remaining "red" states until he dies, then that will also fall apart.