You are all aware of the uncontrolled reentry of the failed Soviet era COSMOS 482 Venera Venus lander tonight.
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You are all aware of the uncontrolled reentry of the failed Soviet era COSMOS 482 Venera Venus lander tonight.
Here is the trajectory map from Aerospace Corp. with some added annotations to help make sense of it. It shows 6 orbital tracks over 8 hours centered around the expected reentry time. It will strike the ground along one of these tracks, but not between them. Reentry will occur near the northern end of the orbit.
Launch date: Mar 31, 1972
Weight: ~495 kg -
Cosmos 482 (aka Kosmos 482) was a Soviet Union mission to Venus, launched in 1972, which failed to escape low orbit.
The Venera landing module was designed to descend into the extremely harsh and hostile atmosphere of Venus and to withstand 300 G’s of acceleration and 100 atmospheres of pressure. As a result, the 495 kg, 1-meter wide, almost spherical, probe is less likely to break up during reentry and might strike earth at ~242 km/h..
https://blogs.esa.int/rocketscience/2025/05/07/reentry-prediction-soviet-era-venera-venus-lander-cosmos-482-descent-craft/
https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2025/04/kosmos-842-descent-craft-reentry.html
2/n -
The graph below by Marco Langbroek shows the change in apogee and perigee over the past 1.5 years for the Kosmos 482 descent craft.
"Notably apogee has been coming down steadily, but in the past few months, perigee has started to come down too. Mid May 9 (today), the object was in a 194 x 126 km orbit, with apogee coming down by 40 km/day and perigee by 8 km/day."
https://www.n2yo.com/satellite/?s=6073 shows a 200.9 x 134.8 km orbit with 51.9° inclination and 87.7 minute period.
https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2025/04/kosmos-842-descent-craft-reentry.html
3/n -
We can follow the orbit and track of the Cosmos 482 Venus landing craft on the web at https://www.n2yo.com/?s=6073
This is another good site with additional details -
https://www.satcat.com/sats/6073
4/n -
The impact speed of Cosmos 482 is estimated at ~242 km/h.
"With a mass of just under 500 kg and 1-m size, a TUDAT reentry analysis suggests an impact speed (after atmospheric deceleration) of about 65-70 meter per sec (~242 km/h), assuming the reentering lander did not break up or extensively ablate during reentry.
The kinetic energy at impact is similar to that of a 40-55 cm large (after ablation) meteorite fragment."
https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2025/04/kosmos-842-descent-craft-reentry.html
Also follow https://bsky.app/profile/marcolangbroek.bsky.social
5/n -
@AkaSci what kind of law applies here? If it lands intact, who owns it?
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@mightyspaceman
Prof. Sam Lawler @sundogplanets, an expert on space debris and space laws, can answer that question - what kind of law applies here? If it lands intact, who owns it?Related question - if it causes property damage or personal injury, who is liable for compensation?
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Last update from Aerospace Corp. has narrowed the reentry time window of Kosmos 482 to 6 hours.
May 10th, 6:12 AM UTC +/- 3 hours.
So, the reentry window opens at 3:12 UTC (11:12 EDT).
Keep in mind that the orbital period of Cosmos 482 is ~1.5 hours.
6/n
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@AkaSci @mightyspaceman The Space Liability Convention says the launching state is absolutely liable for any damage on the ground (and my understanding is also that the pieces have to be returned to the launching state if requested). But what if the launching state (USSR) doesn't exist any more? I have NO IDEA what happens. Probably no one else does either. Should be ... interesting?
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Current position of Cosmos 482 is just past apogee in the southernmost location. Now coming back to make another run over western Africa.
Altitude at apogee was around 186.15 km, quite a drop from the 200 km apogee 7.5 hours ago.
https://www.n2yo.com/satellite/?s=6073
7/n
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@mightyspaceman
@sundogplanetsIsn't it amazing that you can pose a question to a top expert on a complex subject matter and get an answer in minutes?
Thank you Prof. Lawler to helping our community stay informed and educated.
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Last apogee of Cosmos 482 was around 01:30 UTC, altitude = 183.26 km, 2.89 km lower than the previous one.
It's amazing that they keep updating the TLE, which precisely describes the orbit, since the orbit is now changing rapidly.
https://www.n2yo.com/satellite/?s=6073
8/n
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The time window for reentry of the Cosmos 482 Venus descent craft is now open.
Last perigee was around 2:12 UTC at an altitude of ~123 km.
https://www.n2yo.com/satellite/?s=6073
9/n
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Here is the graphic from post #1 again with a few more annotations showing the location and timing of Cosmos 482 along the tracks as of now and over the next few orbits.
Note that reentry is most likely to occur near perigee over northern latitudes. So, the next time to watch is around 4:30 UTC (12:30 a.m. EDT).
https://aerospace.org/reentries/6073
10/n
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Ladies and Gentlemen, now is the time to place your bets.
The scientific forecast is for the Cosmos 482 Venus descent craft to come crashing down on earth during the next 3 orbits near perigee. What does you crystal ball and/or your physics model say?
11/n
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G gustavinobevilacqua@mastodon.cisti.org shared this topic
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Sorry, the votes in the poll above got wiped out because I fixed a typo.
The n2yo.com site is down, but this site is still up and running and displaying good data including altitude, although it is slow to connect.
Too much interest in this event tonight, which is a good thing, right?
COSMOS 482 DESCENT CRAFT - NORAD 6073 - 3D Online Satellite Tracking
Online 3D Satellite Tracking, with more than 15,000 satellites, pass and flare predictor. HD Images and video of the Earth from space
(www.satflare.com)
12/n
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ESA is reporting radar-based observations of Cosmos 482 from Germany at 04:30 UTC and 06:04 UTC.
We do not know the fate of the descent craft after 06:04 UTC.
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According to EU Space Surveillance and Tracking (EU SST), the Cosmos-482 Descent Craft decayed within the last estimated re-entry window (06:04 UTC ±20 minutes). Exact location is not known, but it lies somewhere along the yellow or green lines in the map below.
Since ESA reported a radar sighting in Germany at 06:04 UTC, the reentry probably took place along the green line.
https://www.eusst.eu/newsroom/eu-sst-monitors-reentry-object-cosmos-482/
14/n
