You are all aware of the uncontrolled reentry of the failed Soviet era COSMOS 482 Venera Venus lander tonight.
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@AkaSci @mightyspaceman The Space Liability Convention says the launching state is absolutely liable for any damage on the ground (and my understanding is also that the pieces have to be returned to the launching state if requested). But what if the launching state (USSR) doesn't exist any more? I have NO IDEA what happens. Probably no one else does either. Should be ... interesting?
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Current position of Cosmos 482 is just past apogee in the southernmost location. Now coming back to make another run over western Africa.
Altitude at apogee was around 186.15 km, quite a drop from the 200 km apogee 7.5 hours ago.
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@mightyspaceman
@sundogplanetsIsn't it amazing that you can pose a question to a top expert on a complex subject matter and get an answer in minutes?
Thank you Prof. Lawler to helping our community stay informed and educated.
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Last apogee of Cosmos 482 was around 01:30 UTC, altitude = 183.26 km, 2.89 km lower than the previous one.
It's amazing that they keep updating the TLE, which precisely describes the orbit, since the orbit is now changing rapidly.
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The time window for reentry of the Cosmos 482 Venus descent craft is now open.
Last perigee was around 2:12 UTC at an altitude of ~123 km.
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Here is the graphic from post #1 again with a few more annotations showing the location and timing of Cosmos 482 along the tracks as of now and over the next few orbits.
Note that reentry is most likely to occur near perigee over northern latitudes. So, the next time to watch is around 4:30 UTC (12:30 a.m. EDT).
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Ladies and Gentlemen, now is the time to place your bets.
The scientific forecast is for the Cosmos 482 Venus descent craft to come crashing down on earth during the next 3 orbits near perigee. What does you crystal ball and/or your physics model say?
11/n
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G gustavinobevilacqua@mastodon.cisti.org shared this topic
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Sorry, the votes in the poll above got wiped out because I fixed a typo.
The n2yo.com site is down, but this site is still up and running and displaying good data including altitude, although it is slow to connect.
Too much interest in this event tonight, which is a good thing, right?
https://www.satflare.com/track.asp?q=6073#TOP
12/n
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ESA is reporting radar-based observations of Cosmos 482 from Germany at 04:30 UTC and 06:04 UTC.
We do not know the fate of the descent craft after 06:04 UTC.
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According to EU Space Surveillance and Tracking (EU SST), the Cosmos-482 Descent Craft decayed within the last estimated re-entry window (06:04 UTC ±20 minutes). Exact location is not known, but it lies somewhere along the yellow or green lines in the map below.
Since ESA reported a radar sighting in Germany at 06:04 UTC, the reentry probably took place along the green line.
https://www.eusst.eu/newsroom/eu-sst-monitors-reentry-object-cosmos-482/
14/n
