Dear friends, I hope one thing is clear from this: the whole "Africans are war prone" trope needs to go.
Yes, the continent remains cursed with leaders who are willing to kill before making the slightest compromise. However, East Africa is some exhibit: the worst mass murderers and warlords have wealthy sponsors in the Middle East fattening their coffers. Millions of people have no say in what happens, and are at the mercy of decision makers in faraway MENA capitals, chasing geopolitical Ws.
Two other experts appear with me, and we explain how the race to secure the Bab El Mandeb, is carving East Africa apart.
The region has the world's bloodiest ongoing conflict still raging on in Sudan, and reels from the Tigray war, the deadliest conflict of the 21st century that killed half a million people in Ethiopia and ended in 2022.
With both countries becoming proxy battlegrounds for regional powers, a new conflict could engulf Ethiopia, Eritrea and Sudan.
https://www.thetimes.com/video/originals/article/is-this-africas-next-big-conflict-29hrzff3t
In this video explainer produced by The Times (UK newspaper) I provide analysis on the conflicts in East Africa and the role being played by major Gulf/Middle East powers in pushing the region to a potentially all encompassing, devastating all out war.
At the root of it all, jostling between Riyadh + Cairo on one side & Abu Dhabi on the other, for control of the Bab El Mandeb oil corridor. To secure influence over it, the UAE is urging Ethiopia towards war with Eritrea.
"Genocide resumes," reads this weekend's cover of @thecontinent newspaper, as El Fasher finally falls after a 500+ day siege by the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan.
The RSF, long implicated in genocidal violence in Darfur dating back to the days of its predecessor the Janjaweed back in 2004, have been on a deadly rampage killing thousands in recent days. Sudanese activists had been warning for over a year of what could happen if they were to overrun El Fasher. The disaster is now unfolding.
@bbacc @futureisfoss @thomasjwebb
I have theories, although I didnt dwell on them in the story because its mostly speculation, but the Afar-Somali conflict is one that plagues both Ethiopia and Djibouti. And Djibouti, where the Afar are largely on the periphery of power, is believed to back Somali forces in Ethiopia as well. In the context of that broader conflict, this may have been a revenge strike for battlefield losses.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afar–Somali_clashes
@futureisfoss @thomasjwebb thank you both! I have some theories...driving will get back shortly
You can catch the full story in this weekend's edition of @thecontinent.org newspaper. My investigation is from page 15-19.
Sorry for the length. As always, I'm especially grateful for the kind feedback from the fediverse family. Thank you for your time and for caring about stories from my corner of the world.
Cheers,
ZZ.
That's it. For a greater understanding of the devastating impact of cheaply manufactured drones in Africa, distributed by the likes of Turkiye...I produced this policy brief for the European Council on Foreign Relations earlier this year, which highlights the increasingly alarming trend that is ravaging communities like Mariam's across the continent.
Mariam Mohammed Abdullah was severely injured in the strike. Due to no fault of their own, the massacre of her people, innocent Afar pastoralists, led to the alignment of the geopolitical interests of regional & international powers & a joint effort to depict this mother of eight as a terrorist.
She's a survivor and a brave woman.
But the vote passed with a comfortable majority. The Ethiopian government's silence, the biased media coverage by prominent international and especially French news agencies, and frankly...Lecoq being a communist...meant that his words, however truthful they were, would always be viewed as the ramblings of a radical.
https://www.assemblee-nationale.fr/dyn/17/dossiers/DLR5L17N51789
On June 23 2025, despite the best efforts of Djiboutian activists, the renewal of the French-Djiboutian military pact was ratified. During pre-vote debate, Jean-Paul Lecoq, a communist MP, accused "corrupt" Djiboutian officials of carrying out airstrikes against its people & those of neighbouring Ethiopia.
I reached out to the CEOs of both Turkish state companies whose weapons caused the Siyaru massacre... Haluk Bayraktar of Baykar, and the CEO of Roketsan, Murat Ikinci...about whether they discouraged clients from indiscriminately firing upon civilians, and whether they had any comment about the involvement of their company's weapons in the Siyaru massacre. Silence.
But people from across the region are unanimous in their disappointment over the silence of this woman, Aisha Mohammed Mussa. Not only does she hail from the Afar ethnicity, she's actually the Ethiopian federal government's Minister of Defense.
Double whammy.
Now I promise you...I am not the conspiracy theory type.
But you have to admit, it looks pretty funny and peculiar in hindsight, how major French state backed media were very prompt to produce headlines placing the strike zone a full 8km away from where it actually happened, and depict the dead as FRUD rebels.
For what it's worth, I also reached out to the FRUD rebels. Their chief, Mohamed Kadamy explained to me that his forces "were nowhere near the site when [the strike] happened." He added that FRUD rebels, largely recruited from the Afar population, do operate across the Ethiopian-Djiboutian border areas...but that none of the 3 reported Djiboutian strikes ever hit his forces.
Whatever the case...it is crystal clear to anyone observing, why all three countries were perfectly content with the way international media casually brushed the story aside, depicting the slaughter of women and children on Ethiopian soil as a strike targeting FRUD militants in Djibouti.
I don't have the answers to these questions and Djiboutian officials refused to provide me with them when I reached out.
A French Foreign Ministry official told me on Friday that he would try his "best to respond as quickly as possible" to my queries.
We'll just have to wait and see.
Questions that need to be asked:
Did French forces play a role, either monitoring or assisting in some capacity, the Djiboutian air force as it piloted Turkish Bayrakar TB2 drones into what we now know is Ethiopian territory to carry out a civilian massacre?
Is there possible complicity & to what extent if so?
Were French authorities/forces in Djibouti notified in advance about Djibouti's planned mission on 30/1/25 and if so, what were they told about it?
This is why France's role deserves to come under scrutiny.
French military presence in Djibouti overseeing airspace surveillance suggests that it's highly unlikely that France had absolutely no knowledge of a deadly Bayraktar TB2 drone crossing international frontiers, possibly multiple times over the course of hours...on its watch on 30/1/25
Now HERE is where things get particularly dicey for this thread...and our investigation:
France may have been attempting to renew its agreement with Djibouti. But that doesn't mean it didn't already have one. Since 1991, France has had an agreement giving it responsibility for the safety and surveillance of Djiboutian airspace and waters, as is indicated on the website of France's Assemble Nationale.